EscucharGUANACASTE, COSTA RICA - The inhabitants of the Nicoya peninsula (on the country's Pacific coast) have repeatedly heard the hypothesis that an earthquake measuring 7.4 points on the Richter scale will take place by the year 2003 at the very latest.
After hearing about it so many times, many do not believe, others simply accept what they feel is an inevitable event, and others suspect the hypothesis is only a rumor aimed at affecting the number of visitors to certain beaches in the area, such as Sámara, Carrillo and Nosara among others.
Thus the fact that, along with a certain disbelief, people in Puntarenas and Guanacaste live their lives with tranquility, that has often translated into indifference.
The voice of alert about a possible great quake, as strong as the one that hit the Caribbean on 1991, has been given by the Seismology Observatory of Costa Rica (Ovsicori in Spanish), with headquarters at the National University in Heredia.
The uneasiness --in other parts of the country-- about whether or not this event is close at hand, was brought about once again when a series of seismic activities were registered at the southern end of the peninsula on Easter Sunday (April 12). But among those that might be its possible victims there was no sign of alarm or fear.
Many of the locals suggested that the activities had to do with the occurrence of Holy Week, a time when many quakes always take place.
This link, which has no scientific foundation, did have negative consequences for the tourism of the Sámara and Carrillo beaches, in the district of Nicoya.
Hotel owners and neighbors of the area did not hide their annoyance at the news of the possible tremor; many of them blame the media for encouraging the story to go round.
A theory, a possibility
Why, and with what foundations did Ovsicori warn about the possibility of an earthquake in the Nicoya peninsula?
Juan Segura, investigator in this center, stated that they have sufficient studies, with serious and scientific foundations, to talk about a quake with the characteristics mentioned above.
Scientists have yet to develop an accurate method of forecasting these phenomena however, which is why Segura said that they can only predict that it will take place in the peninsula. ``We can't talk about a specific place,'' he assured.
For the people at Ovsicori, the main cause for alarm has to do with the fact that the region is going through a period of seismic tranquility.
Federico Güendell, an expert on the subject, in an interview with the daily La Nación from 1996, said that in 1853, 1900 and 1950 there were earthquakes ``measuring more than 7 points on the Richter Scale,'' which allows us to conclude ``that this zone can accumulate great quantities of energy.''
According to an article of the Research Institute of Ovsicori, the studies carried out by its members have a 93 percent probability of accurately predicting the 7.4 point quake.
Ovsicori's theory however, does not receive the support from the National Seismology Network (RSN in Spanish), located at the University of Costa Rica. Wilferdo Rojas, from the latter said that they limit themselves to stating that it is a zone with high seismic activity. ``We dare not say more,'' he expressed.
For the RSN, there are still many studies to be carried out in order to support the great quake hypothesis.
